Statistical imagination applied to the unmeasurable.
five figures, one object · the lens names the parts · drag to walk around · scroll for the rest
Old instruments, well used — to see the structure under outcomes: incentives, institutions, the residual nobody models. Every page here has two layers. You are carrying the lens.
the surface says what; the lens says why.Two family sides, two economic worlds, a childhood between Lima, a farm, and other countries — then Toronto at eighteen with little English, a kitchen, and a few doors that bought me the rarest input of all: time to think. Trained in economics; the crossings are the credential. The ideas are the point.
the range, not the rank, is the thing I learned to read.Lima; a farm every summer; other countries, briefly. Different societies, a similar seat in each — surrounded by every level at once.
the same seat in different societies is a natural experiment.Toronto at eighteen: months to find work, a kitchen, the language. Then a bridge program, a home full of books. Without them, probably still in that kitchen.
the doors were institutions. the counterfactual is the kitchen.The Wealth of Nations, one counselor's word, economics. Today: Toronto — and the flow reversed: I used to depend on others; now others can depend on me.
"time to think is a unique luxury that we don't think much about."Short notes on what is current; an essay when one is ready. Numbered in the order they were published, newest on top.
2 of 2 · newest 2026-04-12 · numbered by publication, never by importance. open the index →Ideas are light: a title and a few lines, in conversation with what is current. Projects are the showcase unit: the decision, the measurement, one visual — and the reading under the lens.
I grew up in a resource-rich country that struggles anyway. Institutions decide.
institutions, not endowments ↔ the streets of my childhoodThe economy grows while individuals don't. The gap has a mechanism, and it's visible.
capital compounds; labour rents its hours"Time to think is a unique luxury that we don't think much about." The input nobody prices.
who in the model has time to think? almost no one.An adoption-outcome analysis of Toronto’s shelter data — the original portfolio project, now being rewritten as a proper case study with the methodology on the page.
Case study in progressAn interactive, Football Manager–style map of the analytics craft — six pillars of attributes, twenty-two roles, one honest self-assessment.
Open the dossier →The day craft: warehouse models, dashboards built to be trusted, and pipeline design that stays boring on purpose.
Write-ups in progressImprovement of the people alive.
— not by getting more, but by getting better. start with the ideas →